9 Year Cycle El Nino And Super Computers
Jun
2008
Super computers, weather prediction, fuzzy logic, valuation of events and the reality of randomness; what does it all mean? How far have we really come? Well we are done with El Nino and ready for LA Nina right? Not so fast. After all this El Nino was not within the proper 9 year cycle right. Right, but why? Was it due to solar activity, solar flares, ionosphere thinning, Global Warming? Hmmm? This is very interesting my friends. We know that certain things can occur in any system, these “events occur” situations or called by non-scholarly gentlemen like me “sh_t happens” type events can be figured into a program. These programs are quite powerful and take into consideration multiple trends simultaneously converging. Each event, each trend or event is then given a value number or probability rating and thus many, many points of your data set can be figured to give you the answer you seek?
Is such a system valid, can it predict weather? Yes, however the people who value such items or design such programs are not always correct in their programmed assumptions for the super computers to adequately calculate weather events, but they do get extremely close. To do so accurately we must take into consideration such things a micro events or trends, which can change weather patterns so slightly that they can eventually change the whole to such a large degree that the big event predicted will not occur at all. This is true and though we have had weather people and TV Media blow out of proportion storms for the simple fact they wanted higher ratings, it is possible that the best possible super computer may render irrelevant data based on faulty assumptions on valuations of mirco trends on the macro dominant trend.
Luckily we are learning lots about weather and collecting so much data that the predictions are becoming better. But simple long term predictions of will there be another El Nino type year, where the Pacific ocean rises and heats up a few degrees above normal or will we see the trade winds and the Pineapple Express render itself back to the normality of what we have come to expect over years of farmer’s almanac studies and data collection?
The Internet as much as w love information contains a high degree of conjecture, opinion, junk science, un proven theories and garbage. If you study textbooks, it is the same, with little value of reality or any relevant perception of truth. Even books like “What your History Teacher Never told you” is half questionable. The last really strong LA Nina was in 95-96 after a completely fascinating Storm Watch 93-94 El Nino. As any competent Naval Postgraduate Student or NOAA Research Professional will tell you the Atmosphere is extremely complicated.
The super computers and extensive new techniques in programming coupled with the funds for research, increasing use of Artificial Intelligence and the explosive growth of net worked sensors is getting us very close to where we wish to be with weather prediction and fully understanding the 9-year cycles of El Nino.
“Lance Winslow” - Online Think Tank forum board. If you have innovative thoughts and unique perspectives, come think with Lance; www.WorldThinkTank.net/. Lance is a guest writer for Our Spokane Magazine in Spokane, Washington
